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May 13, 2024: Look for teams down in series to up intensity, production

Whether or not the Thunder and Hurricanes can win tonight is one question. The more certain fact seems to be that we can expect higher volume from these teams' most important players.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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Look for teams down in series to up intensity, production

From left: Carolina's Jake Guentzel and OKC's Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. USA TODAY Sports photos

Whether or not the Thunder and Hurricanes can win tonight is one question. The more certain fact seems to be that we can expect some level of desperation and added intensity, which should lend itself to higher volume from these teams' most important players. As such, that's where we look on the Carolina and Oklahoma City end tonight.

Trailing teams could lead to some productive nights

Shai-Gilgeous Alexander 35+ points (+145)

SGA has yet to hit this mark this postseason, but he's been incredibly involved in the Thunder's offense the past two games (and all season). Gilgeous-Alexander has piled up 64 points in his past two games, chucking up 23 and 24 attempts.

Down 2-1 to Dallas in the series, we expect SGA to continue shooting at a blistering pace, and should he find that volume, the points tend to follow.

In 20 games this season with 23+ field goal attempts, SGA is averaging 34.5 points per game, going for 35+ in four of his last eight such games. Bring on a big game from the Thunder star as OKC looks to even up this series against Dallas.

Jake Guentzel 4+ shots on goal (+150)

We're not so sure Carolina can win this game, but we are quite certain that Jake Guentzel is coming to keep shooting the puck to keep them in it.

The Hurricanes star has 5+ shots in three of the four games this series, finishing with 9+ attempts in each of those games. He's loved facing the Rangers over the years, averaging 4.3 SOG per game over the past two years, finishing with four or more shots in seven of his last eight games at MSG. Expect another big outing from Guentzel here.

Together, these two come in at +512 on DraftKings when parlayed.


In the news ...

Atlanta Hawks win NBA lottery with just a 3 percent chance to do so — The Hawks made a major jump up the NBA Draft lottery over the weekend, moving up from their slot at 10th to end up with the top overall selection. Atlanta had just a 3 percent chance to pull off that type of jump, and now own the top pick in a draft that is widely expected to be a bit light on star power. Alexandre Sarr is the current favorite to go No. 1 at -180. Sarr is a 7-foot-1 center who played last season in the NBL. The Wizards, Rockets, Spurs and Pistons rounded out the top five of next month's draft.

NFL season opener will be Chiefs vs. Ravens — The NFL home opener has been announced, and it will be the two-time defending champs Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens in Kansas City, a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. Kansas City opened as standard three-point favorites, -155 to the moneyline. The full schedule is set to be released later this week, but expect some more prime-time games to be trickled out through reporting over the next day or two.

Panthers go up 3-1 and Canucks go up 2-1; Pacers and Nuggets even series at 2-2 — Denver has taken both games on the road over Minnesota to make this a series, and suddenly the Nuggets are back to being the betting favorites out West, -165 to win the series and +145 to make the Finals. Indiana also tied their series with the injured Knicks, and the Pacers are -120 to advance. On the ice, the Florida Panthers came back to beat the Bruins and go up 3-1, while Vancouver took Game 3 in Edmonton to go up 2-1 in that series. We still like the price on the Oilers winning the series, currently -110.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers

We're calling curtains in this Celtics-Cavaliers series. Boston is ending this in two more games. Naturally, that will have to start tonight, and after watching the Cs beat the Cavs by 13 on the road Saturday, we're confident they cover this -8.5 tonight.
Monday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Celtics
-8.5 (-110) -357 > 206.5 (-114)
Cavaliers
+8.5 (-109) +300 < 206.5 (-115)
2 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks

This series feels bound for seven games, so we're backing the Thunder at +1.5 tonight. Game 3 was tight, and with a potentially hobbled Luka Doncic, we think OKC takes one here on the road to head home with a 2-2 series tie.
Monday, 9:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Thunder
+2 (-110) +110 > 215 (-110)
Mavericks
-1 (-113) -118 < 215 (-110)
3 Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Rangers

Igor Shesterkin has been making a ton of saves for New York, and he'll have to again to hold off what should continue to be a desperate Hurricanes team chucking pucks on net. That pace has been profitable for the over this series, with it hitting in three of four games. We'll follow that trend with over 5.5 tonight.
Monday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Hurricanes
+1.5 (-300) -112 > 5.5 (-105)
Rangers
+1.5 (-278) -104 < 5.5 (-112)
4 Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche

Give us Colorado here to win at home and even the series. The Avs are too good to give up both home games against Dallas, and we do still lean Colorado's way to advance to the Western Conference Final. We loaded up Colorado moneyline at -135.
Monday, 9:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Stars
+1.5 (-205) +120 > 6.5 (-104)
Avalanche
-1 (+114) -135 < 6.5 (-109)
5 Kutter Crawford over 5.5 Ks 

Boston's Crawford has finished with 6+ strikeouts in five of his last six and is over this line in six of eight on the season. Nine of the last 10 righties to see the Rays have gone over their strikeout totals, so grab this total at a nice price.

Latest Odds:  +125
6 Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases 

Boston's Devers is picking up steam a bit here, going over his total bases line in two straight. He has a solid history off Tampa's Zach Eflin, piling up two doubles, two homers and a single in 11 plate appearances against the righty. Devers is hitting RHP better on the year, so count us in on his total bases tonight exceeding 1.5.

Latest Odds:  +100

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